Will Hossa stay will he go? What about the Mule and our other Euros?
ARGGHHH! This is a day of incredible celebration for all Red Wings fans- Rejoice people!!!!
And take a moment to thank Ken Holland and Mike Ilitch (with Stevie Y and Jim Nill) for once more setting the Silver Standard in organizational Class, Style and Salary Cap Management.
There is nothing like the feeling of watching an organization lead the way in fearlessness riding on their intuitive sense of the “right path”.
Hearing Mr. Ilitch talk about the Red Wing family and being thrilled that Hank is a Red Wing “for life”, I know the proof is in the press release. We need only look to Mike Ilitch’s left to see Steve Yzerman, the shining example of this organization’s commitment to “lifers” and loyalty, its players, growing their players and the never ending drive to be the best.
And hearing Hank’s agent say “from the very beginning Hank wanted to stay in Detroit his whole career.” you just know this is a match made in Hockeytown. (Hiss away people, I’m reveling in it!)
You can talk about the decline of production over the years, but I will point to Nic Lidstrom, turning 38 this year. Or Cheli, defying all the odds merely by playing, (and looking like he could take Le Mew on head to head!).
Many try to emulate and imitate, but in signing Henrik Zetterberg for life, the Detroit Red Wings show once more that they cannot be duplicated. Or second guessed.
Once the boisterous fanfare dies down and the bubbly is gone, naturally a fair Red Wing fan’s thoughts turn to the following Question:
What does Z’s contract mean for the rest of the team?
While I would never dream of second guessing whatever Mr. Wily Ken-otye decides do in the upcoming Off-Season, its fun to speculate. SO to that end…
How Might the Red Wings spend their money for the 09-10 season?
NB: At this point if you are not a red wing fan or a person who just loves statistics, you might want to abandon further reading- its gonna be boring or anyone who is not a Red Wing Homer.
Baseline Assumptions
These are the assumptions I will work from in projecting what might happen in Detroit this summer. (Oh come on, you eastern/northerners NEED an excuse to think about summer.)
1. The salary cap is set by assigning a percentage of all “hockey-related” revenues to player salaries. So if revenues go up, the Cap will increase by a like percentage.
2. The 08-09 Cap is $56.7MM. It rose from $50.3 in 07-08 to $56.7 in 08-09- an 11% increase.
3. The cap will continue to increase.
Now, last year’s incredible 11% revenue increase was a function of a stronger Canadian Dollar. Its true. 07-08 Canadian teams counted for 30% of the league’s (ticket) revenues. In fact, I have read that the increase in the value of the Canadian Dollar may be responsible for as much as half of the league’s revenue gains since the lockout.
Last week I heard on NHL Network that the League is predicting (if we stay on course) an actual revenue jump of 7%. This year the Canadian Dollar is weaker and the 7% projected increase in revenues will be offset by a weak Canadian dollar.
4. Based on the assumptions above, I’ll use a very conservative revenue increase here of 3%.
A 3% increase in the Salary Cap for 09-10 equals $58.4MM.
5. The minimum player salary for 09-10 is $500,000. (From the CBA)
6. The individual Player Cap of $11.68The maximum salary a player can earn being 20% of his team’s salary cap provided his team spends to the ceiling.
7. My Detroit salary figures are estimates taken from one of my favorite websites: www.letsgowings.com.
8. For simplicity purposes I will rely on www.letsgoredwings.com estimates and assume that Zetterberg’s contract is front loaded : $7.4MM Next year; $7.75 in 10-11, $7,.75MM in 11-12.
9. Detroit in 08-09 is at $56.3MM with roughly $400k in cap space.
10. I did not factor the effect of other teams inflating salaries for marginal players like they did last summer, causing headaches for the rest of the teams, because that is predicting the future and somehow the Wings always manage to stay out of that fray.
11. I did assume minimal salary inflation, league wide, due to the economy.
SALARY CAP JEOPARDY FOR THE 09-10 SEASON
Including Zetterberg, these are the main UFAs and RFAs we have to work on over the next few months (I have included most of the prominent AHL Griffen UFA/RFAs):
Hossa currently at $7.45 MM
Zetter currently at $2.9MM
Samuelsson currently at $1.2MM
Hudler currently at $1.015MM (and a RFA)
Franzen currently at $941,000
Conklin currently at $750,000
Kopecky currently at $500,000
Chelios currently at $750,000
McCarty currently at $500,000
Leino currently at $875,000 (RFA)
Downey currently at $575,000
For simplicity sake I am taking the Wings 08-09 payroll and subtracting all of these salaries, AND I am rounding.
I know LW3H is cringing, but thing is, He is the master statistician, not me. I should not be allowed to play with numbers. In fact, I should not be left alone unsupervised in a room full of numbers.
The Red Wings 08-09 payroll without these players’ salaries is $38.9MM.
These players represent $17.8MM of the Wings’ cap space ($17.4 plus the $400,000 wiggle room.)
In 09-10 the Wings will have $19.9 MM to spend on its UFA/RFAs.
$19.9-$7.4 (Zetter) leaves $12.5 to play with.
Detroit only has $12.5 MM to sign all these other players.
Now as imaginary GM for a day, my goal is to keep as many of our core players as possible. (I’m the GM, I make the rules) Further, I have just paid Valtteri Filppula $2.5-3MM last summer, and arguably Franzen, Hossa, Huds and Conks are worth more or equal. There is an argument that Sammuelson is worth that too. Sammy is still proving himself to me, but in all honesty, a good playoff showing and a reasonable expectation by the kid I am on board 150%.
Hossa and Franzen are worth more than Flips on the free market. Given Hossa’s regular season demonstration, if he produces in the playoffs then on the free market he is worth $8-9. (That said, I rarely see the free market number as realistic) If we set Hossa aside for a minute, and look at the Mule, well….
Franzen is only getting $941,000 this year. If he produces in the playoffs like he did last year, he is worth more than Filps. Accounting for a home town discount and the fact that Dan Cleary makes $2.5-3MM and Brad Stuart makes $3.75, I say the Wings want to get the Mule for $3.5MM, 4-6years.
$12.5 MM
- 3.5 MM for Franzen = 9.0 MM Left
Sammuelson and Hudler- should be prepared to expect offers of less than $3.5 MM. More likely they will get $2MM offers for 3-4 years, with slight increases maybe. Huds is staying with whatever he gets offered. Sammy might want more.
$9.0MM
-4.0MM for Sammy and Huds = $5.0MM
Note with Huds being a RFA: Offer Sheets could totally screw these numbers up. If Huds gets too greedy, he could be gone. I have no reason to think he would, and I would hate that- Huds is the future. Huds and Helm.
Ty Conklin Here is where we could lose a great contributor. Wings have a history of not being great with Goalies. The fans ran Cujo out of town for cripe sake. Even the Prodigal Son Ozzie has to suffer when he makes one mistake. We are ruthless and we are cheap with Goalies- who are arguably the most important player on a Playoff Team. Ozzie only makes about $1.5MM (WHAT A BARGAIN!) so Ty can’t expect to get more than that. I look for $1.1MM
$5.0MM
-1.1MM for Ty Conklin = $ 3.9MM left
Kopecky needs a stellar year to garner more than the requisite bump. Unless he does something spectacular in the playoffs, I don’t see him getting more than $750,000, maybe increased to $1.0MM over 3 years. Thing is we have three great younger centers- Helm, Hudler and Kops- Kops is the least of these, and with Z and D wanting to play center, well. Kops may not be safe.
$3.9MM
- .750 for Kopecky = $3.15MM left
Cheli and Darren McCarty Who knows if they will be back, Darren needs to work his way back into the line up. Assuming no salary increases, and they come back- they take up $1.25MM
$3.15MM
-1.25 for Mac and Cheli = $1.9MM left
Leino – currently in Grand Rapids, many herald Ville Leino as the next big thing out of Detroit. The fact that his salary is already higher than the rest of the Griffens speaks volumes. Based on what we paid guys like Hudler early on, Leino’s getting a 3-4 year contract at about $1.015 a year to sit and wait for his time. PS- He’s another center. Lord. We won’t need centers, unless they can score (like Huds).
$1.9MM
- 1.015
$885,000 left for Downy and Hossa- and wiggle room.*
My numbers are really tight, conservative, and probably not what players want to see. But I think they are realistic.
Here is the thing. I love Hoss. I’d love to see him settle down with a team where he can be the kind of contributor he is with the Wings. Hossa is a Red Wing through and through. He has proven himself to fit so perfectly and I know I will adore him more and more as the playoffs come close. As GM for a day, my first thought is that we just don’t have the money to lose 4-5 players for one guy.
Hossa would eat up such a big chunk of this $12.5 MM, Even if I ditch the two most expensive players on the list, Franzen and Sammy, I still don’t have another $4MM to come close to the numbers now.
The Wings would have to dump Sammy, Franzen, Cheli and D-Mac, AND Hossa would have to take a huge pay cut to stay under this scenario. Plus for a long term contract, No way Hossa gets more than Z or D, so lets say $5MM. I don’t see him doing that.
Now on the other hand, let’s say revenue somehow hit the 11% mark again- well all bets are off, we might be able to keep him.
Flame away! Seriously I am expecting my number crunching friends and a lot of Wings fans to chat this up and tell me where my assumptions are tragically flawed or whatever.
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