Wings versus Ducks: Second Round Pregame Analysis. This time its Serial…

And by “Serial” I mean: way way (way) too long, statistic intense and infuriatingly redundant. Caveat Reador- Not even I want to read this one again, but damn it I wrote it, staying up until well past midnight last night, and so guess what? Its getting posted.

Wings v Ducks. The 2009 Western Conference Semifinals will feature a match up pitting the reigning Stanley Cup Champions, a team that has only gotten better since they last hoisted the Lord Stanley’s Chalice in June 2008, against a team that scraped to get into the Playoffs and then, in the first round unseated a home state rival which some favored to win it all. Many agree this series going to be the biggest, toughest second round match up.

I understand that there may be some readers who might not have loved my Dirty Ducks rant of yesterday. Some who are perhaps unswayed by the visual and expert proof relied on for the important and valid premise I set forth to prove: That the Anaheim Ducks are the dirtiest team in the league with a flock of players who waddle onto the ice prepared and intending to injure opposing teams.

Because there are some out there who might have wanted more Pure Juice, less High Fructose Corn Syrup well, this one is for you health nuts: a slightly more analytical and indubitably more boring break down as to why the Wings will win this second round series.

What factors should be considered in an in depth analysis of these teams? Does the Regular season even matter? Honestly, I would argue that it doesn’t. Instead my focus will be on current playoff statistics for the numbers and historical playoff facts and performances for the intangibles. And so as not to make it deathly boring, let’s start off with a stat that really bears no relation to the skill or talent of either team: Odds in Vegas.

The Vegas Line (Puck Line Odds). Edge = Wings

For most armchair goalies and sports pundits, the predictions favor the Wings in 6 or 7 games. But Vegas so heavily favors the Wings to take the series that the Puck Line Odds are Ducks +1.5/ +260, Wings-1.5/ -320 (in other words you wager $100 on the Ducks to win by 2 and you get $260, and you wager $320 on the Wings to win by 2 and you get $100).

First Round Performances. Even Strength

Wings. Flipping the switch the Wings are exhibiting their tried and tests strategy which treats the regular season as a warm up to the “Real Season”. It how we do. The Wings’ First Round should have answered all the naysayers “questions” about goaltending, Cup curse and lethargy. The elimination of the upstart and talented Blue Jackets was more efficient, cold, precise and methodical than a Christian Bale character. They are not called the “Red Machine” for nothing. The Blue Jackets fell quicker than honey bees to Colony Collapse Disorder to a resounding dominating series in which the Wings were virtually flawless. With a week since they last saw competition, Wings are rested, on it and ready to win.

Ducks are riding the high of having upset the No. 1 seed and team with the best regular season record with a hot goalie they have confidence in and a rookie who is adding a energetic spark. Beating a seriously improved and fantastic San Jose team that many predicted would make their first finals appearance cannot be underestimated. Make no mistake, this Ducks team is better than most people realize. I called this even only because the upset of a stellar San Jose team should not be underestimated.

The Regular Season. Edge = Wings

Wings have resoundingly beat the Ducks 3 times this year and only lost once, in overtime. They are faster and more skilled than any team in the league. Wings have the better record. Wings who were portrayed in the media as slumping nearly all season long had the third best record in the league for the regular season. What a slump.

Ducks scrapped and scraped to get into the playoffs, getting a trade deadline boost. They should not be underestimated and are better than their regular season record suggests, but they don’t come close to being as proficient or well oiled as the Wings.

Mascots. Edge = Ducks

Wings have Mo’ Cheese and Octopi.

Ducks have a Disney Character named Wildwing and Ice Girls.

Well this one is really a toss up, the question actually becomes, which is worse? Damn Where is Bailey the Lion when you need him? I give the Ducks the edge because I have issues with the throwing of the Octopi. But really Mo’ Cheese is way cooler than Wildwing.

STATS (or as I like to call them- my very good friends)

Its hard to rely solely on stats because the Wings got it done in 4 games while the Ducks had to go to 6 game in the first round, therefore to make a pure numerical comparison the Wings numbers would need to be increased by a factor of .33 which is to say, you cannot make a meaningful direct numerical comparison in this circumstance.

Rather, the only way to compare stats is to conclude that where the Wings stats in points and +/- are equal or comparable to the Ducks, then clearly they have the edge because they played fewer games. Where the goaltending stats are comparable, the edge goes to the Ducks since Hiller saw 2 more games and if the Ducks have more PIMs but gave away more Kill goals, Wings get the edge.

So where do we end up?

First Liners. Edge =Wings

Ducks: Getzlaf leads the West after the first round in points and Bobby Ryan is proving to be a valuable rookie, sure to be a fan favorite for many, many years. While Ryan’s numbers are solid for a rookie (by comparison Kris Versteeg has 7 points and Towes and Parise each had 6 after 7 games) they are just average numbers for a playoff caliber first line.

Sure Getzlaf is nailing it (8 points, +/-5 in 6 games), but the rest of the 1^st line is average with Perry and Ryan each with 4 points, 4 +/-. Only Ryan Getzlaf cracks the top 30 of individual point scorers in the playoffs for the Ducks. After Getzlaf only 5 Ducks (Nieder, Pronger, Whitney, Perry and Ryan) have at least 4 points. Noticeably missing from the pack is Teemu Selanne who has only one goal one assist, and a +/- of 0.

Want to argue Teemu is being targeted and contained? Wait for it, because if you do, then we get to use the same argument for Pavel Datsyuk….which equalized such argument and nullifies it.

Wings: Technically the first line is Datsyuk, Hossa Homer –when your second line is Zetter, Mule, and Cleary, can you really rely on such labels? The Eurotwins are two of the best players in the league but it doesn’t end there. The Wings have several big forwards who are hard to contain down low: Johan Franzen, Tomas Holmstrom, Marian Hossa, Dan Cleary.

How many Wings in the top 30? After 4 games, 2 Wings crack the top 30: Dan Cleary (5 points +/- 6) and Johan Franzen (6 points, +/- 4) then another 6 Wings (Z, Homer, Hudler, Hossa, Lidstrom and Kronwall) have 4 or more points. True Pavel Datsyuk has only 2 points and a 2 +/-, but that is better than Selanne.

Bottom Line: When you account for the fewer games played the Wings have the better numbers and without regard to the fewer games more Wings are producing and producing better numbers than the Ducks, and that gives them the edge.

Still reading? Whoa, good on ya my friend, you are a rock star....

Defense Points and Plus/Minus. Edge = Wings

Ducks Defense combined for a total 16 points in 6 games. With the following +/- stats:

Niedermayer: 3

Pronger: 6

Whitney: 2

Wisniewski: 3

Beauchemin : 1

7 players with 0 or negative +/-

Wings Defense combined for a total 15 points in 4 games. With the following +/- stats:

Lids: 4

Rafs: 5

Kronner: 1

Stuart: 1

Erricson: 2

Lebda:1

3 players with 0 or negative +/-

The numbers are remarkably even, until you account for the 2 fewer games for Wings, which give the Wings the Edge. I am a strong advocate of the argument that the plus/minus tells a better tale of a players impact on the ice than points, and nowhere is this more true than with defense. Its telling that only three wings have a negative or "0" +/-- everyone on the Wings contributes positively.

Hot Goalie. Edge = Ducks

NB: Before everyone starts in on me, remember that:

(a) I am a long time fan and huge (ENORMOUS) Ozzie supporter (read my Ozzie blogs from last May if you don’t believe me), I believe in him 130 %, 24/7 31 days a month 365 days a year, and:

(ii) if it appears I am saying that Hiller is a better goalie than Ozzie, you will need to re-read this topic heading. I have not said that, nor would I ever say Hiller is a better goalie than Ozzie. All I have said is that right now, at this point in time, in this moment, after the first round, Hiller is a Hot Goalie.

Accordingly, here is why I have to draw such a conclusion:

Much is being celebrated about Jonas Hiller in these playoffs and its my opinion that the routing of the San Jose Sharks was a combination of their own mistakes and Jonas Hiller getting hot. Everyone knows a hot goalie can steal a series. Hiller is unquestionably responsible for the Ducks advancing.

Hiller’s numbers are monstrous. Going into the 2^nd round he lead all playoff goalies: 4 wins 2 losses, .957 SV%, GAA 1.64 2 shutouts. With 2 more games under his belt and having withstood the offensively talented SJ Sharks, He clearly has the statistical edge.

Chris Osgood has 4 wins, no losses, a shut out and before Game 4, was sporting the best GAA and SV% in the playoffs. A GAA of 1.75 and a SV% of .936 is stellar. Ozzie played flawlessly for nearly 160 minutes in this first round. Technically Ozzie is a Hot Goalie too.

Numbers are comparable, with Hiller having the edge by virtue of having better numbers and more games. Both goalies can expect to see the same number of shots in this round as last. Hiller saw an average of 38 Shots per game from SJ and the Wings have a 35.5 average, While Ozzie saw 27.5 shots per game from CBJ, and Anaheim was putting an average of 26 shots on net. Even if we consider the quality of shots each goalie is seeing, its arguable that Hiller may have faced better shots than Ozzie just by virtue of playing the Sharks, but I saw Ozzie make some amazing saves on a Columbus team that is better than their post second record suggests.

However, Ozzie’s numbers get less weight by virtue of math and the fact that he is a proven Stanley Cup winning HHOF, record breaking goalie- so he does not get the benefit of the doubt here. Accordingly, He should be performing at these levels, its status quo playoff hockey for the Wiz. So Hiller takes Hot Goalie Status. By a feather.

3^rd and 4^th Lines( ie: Depth). Edge= Wings

Wings are so incredibly deep into their 3^rd and 4^th lines. Find a way to stop Dats and Z and Hossa? No worries. More likely than not clutch and playoff game winning goals are coming from Franzen, Jiri Hudler, Mikael Sammuelson, Darren Helm, Valtteri Filppula. In last years playoffs it was Filps, Sammy, Huds and Helm making clutch game winning goals when our first line was tied up. No one in the league can match the Red Wings for depth.

Total points for Valtteri Filppula (3) Jiri Hudler (4), Mikael Sammuelson (2), Darren Helm, Thomas Kopeky (2) so far in 4 games: 11.

Ducks traded Moen and Kunitz, both of whom proved to be nice additions to their respective new teams (Sharks and Pens), leading me to believe their talent was totally underdeveloped in Anaheim. So Ducks rely on a bench of Parros, Rob Niedermayer, Marchant, Miller and Carter.

Total points for Parros (0) Rob Niedermayer (3) Marchant (1), Miller (3)and Carter (2) so far in 6 games? 9.

Bottom line? Only the Ducks 1^st line is consistently producing in these playoffs.

Special Teams. Edge = Wings

Ducks: PP- 21.7% with 5 PP Goals in the playoffs

PK- 83.3%

PIM- 89

Wings PP- 31.8% leading the playoffs with 7 PP Goals

PK- 76.9%

PIMs- 32 – lowest in the playoffs

With the Best Power Play in these Playoffs at an astonishing 31.8% the Wings will make you play if you head to the Box. These numbers cannot bode well for the Ducks who had 89 minutes of Penalties in the first round. While the Ducks are surprisingly efficient on the Kill, please note that Anaheim has given away 4 PP goals on the Kill in 6 games to the Sharks whose PP% was only 16%, while the Wings have given away 3 PP goals in 4 games against a CBJ team who had a 23% Power Play in the playoffs. So Special Teams will be another area the Wings will have the advantage in that they will score on you if you take stupid penalties and they will stop you if you send them to the box.

Injuries. Edge = Ducks

Wings Draper and Rafalski are out for the first game. Lilja is still out indefinitely. Look or Wings Face offs and defense to be affected. The Rafalski injury is gonna hurt the Wings on offense given he leads the Wings Defense in points.

Ducks Bret Hedican has been out for the entire playoffs, otherwise the Ducks are healthy. (Larsen has been out for a long time so I did not factor him in.)

STILLLLLL Reading? Boy howdy, I just might adore you!

Playoff Experience. Edge = Wings

Wings Since the Late 1980’s 18 straight years of making the Playoffs, 4 Stanley Cups, 5 Conference Titles, 15+ Division Titles. I limited the number of years here to even it up for the fact that the Ducks are an expansion team, making the number of compared years basically even.

Ducks have been around for 16 years (15 seasons now), and have one Cup, 2 Conference Titles and 2 Division Titles. They have made the playoffs every year since the lockout.

Cup Wins. Edge = Wings

The Detroit Red Wings are the defending Stanley Cup Champs with 11 of Chalices in our coffers. However, many people thing this is more of a curse than a blessing. Most of those people are not Red Wings fans and therefore don’t know (or chose to ignore) the fact that this team has won back to back cups in recent history.

If course some would say the Wings have much experience tanking in a year after winning the Cup, and to that I smile politely, nod my head like a third grade Math teacher and glance to the heavens (perhaps) a little condescendingly while saying: “Yes dear child. That experience also helps. You poor dear, don’t you know how these things are won? Hasn’t your team ever won a Cup, don’t you know everything is a learning experience?”

To be fair there are a handful of Wings who don’t have their name on the Cup multiple times….There are only two players on this Red Wings team who do not have their name on the Cup, and they came to Detroit to achieve just that, they are Hungry.

Ducks: Have a recent cup too, but only 8-9 of those 2006-2007 Cup winners remain on the team. Most Ducks do not have their name on the cup.

Goalie with a Cup. Edge = Wings

Hiller might be Hot, but in the end Chris Osgood has been here before, he thrives on adversity and he has faced and beaten some of the best goalies in the league for years. He is a top ten winning-est goalie in the history of the league and he is talented and accomplished enough to be a shoe in as a hall of famer. He knows what it takes and he has proven time and time again that he can get there. Where Hiller is on a hot streak, unproven in the long run, Ozzie is time tested and showing he still has what it takes to win another cup.

Ozzie has his name on that Cup 3 times already. Twice as the cup winning Goalie. Jonas Hiller is on a hot streak and has his name on a Cup but has not played in or won a Finals series.

Intangibles. Edge = Wings

Yep at this point even I don’t care what I am saying…If you are still reading, You are a champion!

Ducks: This Ducks team knows they have knocked the Wings out before, and they also know that if they do, likely they win the Cup. A Hot Goalie and Momentum from the win over San Jose, but they have been pushing and scraping to get into the Playoffs, they will be tired.

Wings: Wings have saved themselves for the Playoffs, The “Real Season” has been the goal all along and they are ready. Wings have seamlessly shifted into Playoff mode, their game has been incredibly elevated and we don’t have any real rookies playing. Wings Core players extend through the 4^th line and no one in this league has that much depth. Ozzie has proven himself (not that he needed to) and in the end Wings are just that much better than the Ducks team.

What else? Lets face it, all this blog proved is that the Vegas Odds makers have some rationale for the insane odds they are laying on the series... Honestly, who cares…this blog has become an albatross, posted merely because I wrote the damn thing. So let’s just wrap this baby up and get on with the game!

Go Wings!