The thing about Filps and his contract negotiations: They exemplify the perfect storm that arises when an extraordinary player who wants to stay with his team, along with a team that loves the player and doesn’t want to lose him, come up against the realities of the business end of professional sports.
You can’t blame either side for this issue. Filps is right to use the arbitration strategy to show his dedication to the Wings by avoiding other offer sheets, but also allowing the negotiations to continue until he gets closer to what he wants. Ken has not been publicly troubled by Filps arbitration move. On the contrary, it seems to be what the Wings wanted him to do once June came and went.
As you know, Filps rejected an offer for contract extension in March. At that time he wanted more than 2 years. He still does.
Filp’s Advantages: the Numbers and the Intangibles
In the regular season, Filps had decent stats, averaging about a half a point a game, with time out for a groin injury. In the regular season: +/- 16: 78 games, 19 goals, 17 assists, 36 points. It makes him the 8th most productive Red Wing on a +/- basis.
(NB: Please understand that I value the +/- stat more than points with the Red Wings because of the Wings style of play, where being defensive is as important as scoring for an offensive player.)
Then came the playoffs. Filps clearly stood on his head. Besides such momentum creating intangibles as crucial goals, the guy had a +/- of 7 with 5 goals, 6 assists- 11 points. Who on the team produced better? Well, the usual suspects: Lids, Zetts, Dats, Franz, Stuart, Kroner, and Sammy. (Sammy!? Ok and one you wouldn’t have suspected…) Many fans would prefer the Wings hold on to Filps and let Sammuelson go. (Sammy is irrelevant, Essentially and baring a year where Sammy stands on his head and makes Zetts look like a AHL-er, I think Sammy is gone after this year and you’ll see why below.)
Oh sure, some of you will remind me that there were a few moments where Valtteri made everyone wince, but, wait. Besides the goal that put the Wings up 2-0 in Game 6 against the pens and made Cindi well up in salty tears, THIS is the moment I remember….
So. Now that I’ve tugged at the emotional chords, let’s take a look at what Filps might be trying to get here.
Based on a decent Stanley Cup winning season, its safe to say, Filps wants more money, in addition to wanting a contract longer than two years. I am not sure what he’s asking for money wise, but the guy made $850,000 last year- just above the minimum.
Ken Holland has cryptically stated that the Wings and Filps both know what a two year contract is worth on the market. I sure don’t, but I wish I did. I bet the Canucks know. Not knowing anything has never stopped me from speculating, so I guess that a guy like that, with Cup momentum could get about 2-4MM a year on the open market and be a 1st line center for certain teams.
Filps’ Disadvantages: Other Deals History and Sacrifice in the Wings Org.
Other Deals
Let’s take a quick look at other off season signings. Hossa’s deal is not comparable. But is Filps worth more than Brad Stuart? Well probably not because a great defenseman is so hard to hold onto, and Brad had a +/- of 15 and 7 points in the playoffs. These were both brilliant deals for the Wings and no brainers.
But they do impact Filps. Brad and Hossa ate huge chunks of the cap, and if Filps gets less than Ken offered in March, he is gonna be kicking himself for a long time.
Other unfinished deals which impact Filps involve Cheli, Ericcson, Mac.
Letting Greats Go
Filps has the disadvantage of working with a team laden with insanely talented offensive players, so its difficult to stand out and what’s worse-
In such a circumstance, your mistakes and omissions are always amplified.
I’ve seen it time and again with the Wings, players like Koslov, Fetisov, Dougie Brown, Fedorov, heck, even Primeau. These former Wings greats are the company Filps may find himself keeping. All insanely talented players who definitely fit into the team and who were all crucial to its success, but who didn’t get all the credit or attention bestowed on other star players. Each had a situation where (with the exception of Fetisov) the team would not and did not suffer from the loss of any of these amazing players. In fact in the case of Primeau, both the team and the player flourished after they parted ways.
And that is the Wings advantage. What really happens if the Wings lose a good center? The hole isn’t that large- or is it?
Winning doesn’t mean more money with the Wings
More important than the harsh reality of teams having to let great talent and beloved players go is the following: Despite the fact that Filps came up big in the playoffs, coming up big as a Wing in the Playoffs almost never translates to big bucks.
Sergei Federov excluded. But that was a long, long time ago.
Coming up big in the playoffs almost never translates to big bucks on the Wings. In fact some greats take considerably less just to stay with the organization. Need an example? Does anyone really think that Hossa is worth more than Nic Lidstrom?
Because they are making the same money next year.
PS: anyone who thinks Hossa is as valuable as Nicklas Lidstrom should be required to turn over their Connect ID and be banned from this site and all of Hockey immediately and indefinitely. Just saying…
Short Term Contracts- Why?
Last week Ken Holland said that they are exploring long term contract details. While its’ great that the Wings are entertaining Filps main contract issue, Holland has also said that if Filps will take a shorter deal, then he’d easily be signed before August 1.
Ken Holland’s interest in a mere one year contract is troubling. Is it a function of the Wing’s lack of faith in their 2002 3rd round 95th pick, or the team being over laden with amazing offensive players? Both seem doubtful. Such ideas go against everything we know about the Wings commitment to their homegrown players. Given his short time in the NHL (less than 3 full years) Its safe to say Wings want to continue to grow their investment, um er, I mean, the kid.
So why on earth would the team be pushing for a 1-2 year deal? As CCD3m suggested to me, they must be worried about the cap.
The Cap
First off: all my numbers here are estimates, and I did the math in my head- so expect me to be a little off. “Off” on my calculations, not off my rocker.. ha ha, hooh hoh, huh ha, hm (throat clearing)…very funneee, ok ok get it all out…. Yea yea…..
The Cap for 08/09 is $56.7 MM and it increases in 09/10. Cap increases are based on League revenues, and in the 08-09 season, the cap increased by about 6.8%. Lets assume the league stays as popular as it is right now, the cap would increase for the 09/10 year to somewhere around $60 MM. Several websites are predicting the 09/10 Cap will be around $62 MM.
Let’s be conservative and say the Wings are planning based on a lower cap of $60 MM in 09/10.
Interestingly and completely off point: The salary floor for 09/10 is predicted to exceed the salary CAP for the 05/06 year of $40 MM, the first year after the lockout. End digression….
The 08/09 Year: Cap at $56.7 MM
Before acquiring Hossa and Conklin, the Wings were estimated to be paying somewhere around $45 MM for active players in the 07/08 year (source: www. Letsgowings- Salary Cap and Contract Charts).
Therefore, with a cap of $56.7 they had about $12 MM to play with this summer. They spent 7.5MM on Hossa, $750,000 on Conklin.
Leaving about $3.9 MM left. We still need to sign UFAs and RFAs Filps, Cheli, Downey, Ericsson and Mac. (Mac is not a big worry if he takes a 2 Way, see below for reasoning. Ericsson is rumored to be signed and will likely start the season in GR).
Non-active RFAs and 2 way players
Non-Active RFAs and Active players sent down to the Griffens (Such as a guy like McCarty who will get a 2 way contract) are important because non-active players only count against the Cap on a “per day hit” basis. Meaning on the day they get called up, their salary for the day counts against the Cap. I expect Helm and Howard (who will likely be bumped down at least for the start of the season) to play a lot during the season- so we need a little cap space to play with them.
Take a million away for Cheli, and you have less than 2.9 MM for a one year for Filps and movement of players back and forth from Grand Rapids. That is tight!
What is the worth of a young talented guy who was instrumental in the success of the team in the playoffs, without without worry about caps and the cost of other players weighing in? Well, earlier I guessed around 2-4 mill.
On the other hand, he only made $850,000 in 08/09, so doubling his salary to $1.7 seems more than reasonable.
Hey. Ozzie only makes about $1.7 a year- so besides blowing the “contribution to the Cup win arguement”, really, to give Filps $1.5 MM or more a year is a gift.
Therefore it’s reasonable to think that Filps probably shouldn’t expect more than $1.5 MM per year.
Now comes the tough part: length of contract.
The 09/10 Year: Very Expensive for the Wings
Oh 09/10, will be painful- and likely the reason the Wings can’t afford more than 1.5/1.7MM per year for Filps. Maybe even the reason Holland is trying to work a one year deal.
RFAs in 09/10: Hudler. He’s making 1.1 MM right now. He should have a great year this year, especially if Helm gets called up- they are great together. No way we let Hudler go.
UFAs in the 09/10 year: Franzen, Zetts, Sammuelson, Kopecky, Conklin, Hossa.
Zetts is the highest paid player in this future UFA group, currently at $2.6/year, and should certainly be offered a contract that while no more than what Lids makes (about $7.5 MM a season) should be a long term deal and likely slightly higher than Datsyuk’s deal of 6.7 MM/per year. Hossa’s 7.5 MM deal is expected to be a zero sum-that cap money gets freed up by letting him go, and made available to resign for Zetts.
Franzen is only making about $950,000 in 08/09. If the Mule has another stellar year, we are looking at guy who probably deserves at least 4-5 MM.
Assuming Hossa goes and there are a couple of retirements or low end player releases, then in 09/10 the Wings should have that 4-5 million extra to sign Franzen. There goes the Cap. Hossa will be gone, Sammy gone. Conklin could stay if he were cheap AND other player moves allow extra wiggle room under the Cap.
And beyond into 09/10….
Because I am on a roll, and because Filps wants more than 2 years, here are some more players and numbers to deal with.
UFA’s in 10/11- Lidstrom, lebda, lilja, Homer and Malts.
RFAs in 10/11- Helm, Meech and Abedelkader are the important ones.
Assuming another 4-5 MM Cap increase getting all of these players in under 5MM? Nope, not if Lids decides to stay. Lids should reach the 10MM mark, which would be significantly lower than market worth.
Homer, Lilja will cost us more money. I’d be amazed if we let any of these players go- especially Helm and Meech. Look for Helm to be called up a lot this year. He is the future- He is amazing. Mark my words. Also, the Org is invested in Meech, so he stays. Abs has to prove himself. All these kids will make about 1 MM each.
Is Filps worth more than the rookies, yea he is. Can he get his value from the Wings? Probably not. And that is why Arbitration is so scary.
Final Prediction?
Well after all this analysis, I delusionally think I know something…feel free to remind me how wrong I am: I say Filppula finally signs on July 31, for either a $1.5 deal for three years, or a $1.8 deal for two years.
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